Posted on: March 31, 2010 1:00 pm

UFC Fight Night 21 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 21 in Charlotte, North Carolina on March 31, 2010 has shaped up to be a very explosive and deep card. This card is full of great fights; the main card is full of potential slug fest match ups. The main card fight introduces an MMA superstar from overseas in Takanori Gomi. He will be taking on UFC veteran Kenny Florian. This is no walk in the park for either fighter and is easy the favorite for fight of the night. Roy Nelson Is also set to fight on this card, in another interesting matchup.

 #10 LW Kenny Florian (12-4) -360 VS LW Takanori Gomi (31-5)(1NC) +275

Winner: Takanori Gomi
Outcome: First round TKO
Why: This is a long awaited arrival for the former Pride Lightweight Champion. It is also a tough invite into the stacked LW division with a welcome fight versus the ever progressing Florian. Gomi who most may would say had a decline near the end of his 08 campaign, is back after a 6 month lay-off to make his debut in the octagon. This is not his first time in the cage or in a large venue so none of that worries me, in all honesty Florian doesn’t worry me in this fight. Gomi has tons of experience and massive amounts of anger and talent; this should be a walk in the park fight for him. I’m not completely writing off Florian I give him his credit as a tough intelligent fighter who will give it his all until the end. I just don’t see Kenny having the athleticism or talent to contend in this fight. I see Florian trying to keep some distance with his kicks, but getting caught early as Gomi presses on forward countering a leg kick with a monster hook.

 Gomi is a ridiculous underdog in this main event of UFC Fight Night 21. At +275 he is a must bet in any scenario.

 HW Roy Nelson (14-4) -450 VS HW Stefan Struve(19-3) +300

Winner: Roy Nelson
Outcome: First Round Submission Kimura
Why: Struve is a fit for any fighter in HW division; he is just a freak with his height and reach advantage. Look for him to keep Nelson outside with straight kicks and jabs. He’ll pepper Nelson for awhile before his opponent manages to bob and weave his way into cage control and a takedown. Roy will land in side guard mount and waste no time to snatch himself a kimura for the win.

 I wouldn’t be scared to add it to a parlay or round robin.

 MW Jorge Rivera (17-7) +225 VS MW Nate Quarry (12-3) -285

Winner: Jorge Rivera
Outcome: Second Round KO
Why: These two fighters have yet to change their tactics in any of their fights for their entire careers, so don’t expect anything less than these two vets to stand toe to toe until someone gets knocked out. I see Rivera as the superior boxer, using footwork and speed to pop and drop the Frankenstein like fighter in Quarry.

 Rivera at +225 is a gift basket for anyone in what is a supremely even fight. Take that and run with it .

 LW Ross Pearson (10-3) -250 VS LW Dennis Siver (15-6) +190

Winner: Dennis Siver
Outcome: 3 Round Split Decision
Why: Look for Pearson to continuously press the action for the entire fight, leading with a heavy right hand. He’ll bully Siver for the majority of the fight, but in the process his legs will be chopped down and he’ll sustain heavy damage from counter strikes. This will be a three round kickboxing fight with Siver winning the fight with a late third round knock down of Pearson, caused only by a higher sense of technicality.

 Siver is almost a 2 to 1 bet, so he’s an easy one for me to throw money at but don’t be afraid to stick with the favorite in this fight.

LW Andre Winner (10-3-1) -210 VS LW Rafaello Oliveira (10-2) +170

Winner: Andre Winner
Outcome: First Round KO
Why:  Andre Winner is just a way to superior athlete for his opponent, as much as Oliveira will try to get this t that mat, he will fail and end up eating and uppercut silencing his night mid way through the first. Look for Winner to be the winner of the KO of the night award, barely edging out Gomi.

 Only way to bet on this fight is for Winner, he is a pretty significant favorite, but could make a decent payout with him individually or in a parlay.

 LW Jacob Volkmann (9-2) +185 VS LW Ronys Torres (18-2) -225

Winner: Ronys Torres
Outcome: First Round Submission Guillotine Choke
Why:  Volkmann’s toughness is the only thing that will make this fight interesting. Torres is crazy good with his submissions, and he is scared to throw his haymakers. Look for him to launch his monster hooks after being a little flustered missing his first sub attempt. He will catch Volkmann forcing him to shoot for a takedown only to be caught in a swift guillotine.

 This is another scenario where the favorite is a heavy one , but all in all Torres is the safe bet here.

 LW Rob Emerson (11-3) +140 VS LW Nik Lentz (11-7) -170

Winner:  Rob Emerson
Outcome: 3 Round Unanimous Decision
Why: This could either be a fight of the night, or the long drawn out yawn match up. Lentz is going to try and take the fight to the mat constantly. If he does then he will win and we will lose. I don’t quite see that happening, Emerson will stuff the majority of the takedowns, and as he does this he will win a decision with his better stand up skills.

This is another even fight but Emerson being the slight underdog has to be the front runner for the money. Lentz is a safe bet too.

LW Gleison Tibau (20-6) -300 VS LW Caol Uno (25-12-5) +240

Winner: Gleison Tibau
Outcome:  First Round TKO
Why: Tibau is one of the biggest LW in the UFC. Look for him to land on top of Uno probably during the first takedown attempt, and with that the fight will be over as he pounds out the old Japanese star for a nice referee stoppage early in the first.

Tibau is the heavy favorite a safe bet. Stay away from Uno his age and one sided fight style is a problem for him in this fight.

 #9 MW Yushin Okami (23-5) -650 VS MW Lucio Linhares (13-5) +450

Winner: Yushin Okami
Outcome:  3 Round Unanimous Decision
Why:  OKAMI will come back to form controlling all areas of this fight and displaying why he is a top ten fighter at the middleweight class. He will own the ground game, the takedowns, and the stand up. Look for a very lopsided dominating win for Okami.

 I don’t like betting on any of these very lopsided fights, risk is not worth the payout.  Only throw this in as parlay being it’s a near certain win.

MW Gerald Harris (14-2) -140 VS MW Mario Miranda (11-0) +110

Winner: Gerald Harris
Outcome:  First Round KO
Why: Harris is a superior athlete with a great sense of power. Miranda is a prospect with a very well rounded game. If this wasn’t his debut I would give him this fight, but because it’s his debut I am putting to affect the jitters one is used to receiving entering the big show for your first time. Look for him to hesitate with a kick and eating a heavy hook that puts him to sleep in the first.

Either fighter is a safe bet have at it guys.

MW Charlie Brenneman (11-1) +180 VS MW Jason High (9-2)-220

Winner: Jason High
Outcome:  3 Round Unanimous Decision
Why: Jason High is too much wrestler for this new comer. Although his hands are a little weak for the octagon, watch High win his debut with three rounds of lay and pray action.

 I’d stay away from these fights period.


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